A "Platform Technology" is a technology, that serves as the basis for many other technologies. For example, the PC is a platform on which you run spreadsheets, type documents, and do any other type of computing activities you might enjoy. On its own, a PC is not very useful, but when running the right applications, it is very powerful.
A "Killer Application" is that first, incredibly valuable and easy to use application that when paired with a platform technology is the source of the value for users. It is these applications that are the impetus for rapid technology diffusion.
There is a host of academic research to back this claim up. I'll focus on the technology diffusion theories of Everett Rogers, F.D. Davis, and Geoffrey Moore.
Everett Rodgers (in addition to introducing the S-shaped diffusion curve) described a potential user's decision to adopt a technology as follows:
In words, he proved that as a new product becomes easier to use, the product's compatibility with existing products increases, and relative advantage over other products increases, consumers are more likely to adopt the product. On the other hand, as the complexity of the product increases, the less likely users are to adopt the technology.
F.D. Davis introduced a variant on Rogers's model. The Technology Acceptance Model states:
That is, ease of use drives utility and both drive technological adoption.
Lastly, Geoffrey Moore, built on Rogers's S-shaped diffusion curve to introduce the idea of "chasms" between market segments in the adoption timeline.
First, "innovators" would use the technology, basically, because it was new and cool. Next, "the early adopters" would adopt the technology because they could imagine the possibilities that the technology would offer. The 3rd and most critical market segment would then be the "the early majority." This group would be the market segment that would finally have a significant effect on the profitability of the new technology. Once they begin to use the technology, diffusion will reach the "tipping point" and accelerate. But, there is a catch. The early majority needs to see a significant and concrete value proposition in order to adopt. Moore, cites many examples of technologies that failed to demonstrate this for the early majority and thus fell into a chasm.
Why have I bored you with all this academic research? Because it is very informative not just for mobile broadband in Latin America, but throughout the world. I'd like to expand on my framework of platform technologies to discuss the diffusion of the PC and Internet and then tie that in with mobile broadband.
For many years, the computer held little value for the majority of market segments. Its use was restricted to academia and hobbyists. The memory and processing capabilities of the platform continued to improve, but this did not translate into value for the consumer. Then came the killer application of Visicalc in 1982.
This improved value and ease of use for the business segment and spurred wide adoption among the early majority of the business user segment.
The next chapter comes in 1984, when processing capabilities allowed for the WIMP (Window Icon Menu Pointing Device) interface.
The new, simple interface increased the ease of use and thus value of computers for the home user segment. The new value proposition carried the PC over the chasm between early adopters and the early majority.
Now, rather than discuss the Internet separately, I'd like to think of the connectedness and bandwidth of the Internet as an extension of the capabilities of the computing platform. That is, in addition to the ability to process information, the Internet introduced a new capability vector: sending and receiving information. Armed with these new capabilities, the computing platform just needed a new, killer application to take advantage of all its capabilities. That came in 1971, with the introduction of email applications.
By now, this is a familiar story. Email significantly increased the value of the platform for the academic segment and technical users. This led to a first wave of adoption on the Internet.
More dramatic was the introduction of graphical web browsers (Mosaic, Netscape.) They are perhaps the best example of a killer application.
Their introduction created so much value for consumers, that the Internet's rapid diffusion was described by Bill Gates as a "tidal wave."
That brings us to today and mobile broadband. My argument is that the mobility of WiMAX and LTE is another capability vector for the computing platform. Now, we can process, send and receive data, and do it while moving. The problem is that up until now, we do not have a killer application that takes advantage of all three capabilities. In order to drive adoption and avoid Moore's chasms, we need either a new application (or even device) to increase ease of use, and utility of mobile broadband. The iPhone has certainly done some of that, but we need something more. Mapping and location based services show promise, but no products currently stand out.
Yeah, so when I think of that product, I'll stop blogging and start raising venture cap.
References:
Davis, F. D. (1989). Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology. MIS Quarterly, 13(3), 319-339.
Rogers, Everett M. Diffusion of Innovations. 4th ed. New York: Free Press, 1995
Moore, Geoffrey A. Crossing the Chasm. New York: Harper Collins, 2002.
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